Noblesville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

517
FXUS63 KIND 222346
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold through Monday, with light snow accumulations possible
  through early Monday, mainly east of a Kokomo-Indianapolis-
  Greensburg line.

- Windy through Monday with gusts to 30 mph possible.

- Next round of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday with
  light snow accumulation possible in northern portions of the
  area.

- Warmer late week with anther cold front expected by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Boundary layer mixing has allowed snowfall to become more convective
in nature this afternoon. Radar appearance has transitioned to
cellular and snow character is now dendritic in nature. This implies
deeper lift into the dendritic growth zone, which makes sense give
shallow convective processes taking hold. Therefore, shower activity
likely continues through the afternoon until boundary layer
stabilization occurs around sunset. Little to no additional
accumulations are expected.

As mentioned, widespread snow shower activity diminishes this
evening as near-surface instability is lost. Additionally, large-
scale forcing from a vort max aloft will exit eastward as well. This
does not mean light snowfall will not continue into the night,
however. Broad cyclonic flow around a rapidly deepening cyclone on
the east coast, cold air aloft from residual troughing, and moisture
off of Lake Michigan should allow light snow to continue into the
night. Since these conditions will only be met immediately downwind
of Lake Michigan, our best snow chances are expected to concentrate
across the northeastern half of our CWA.

High-resolution guidance is in good agreement showing this, and
we`ve upped PoPs from NBM which has been too pessimistic today
regarding snow chances. Some guidance, such as the HRRR, indicate
the potential for a potent lake-effect snow band to make it into our
northern counties. Should this occur, enhanced accumulations of an
inch or two would not be out of the question. Overall, most
locations across our northeast likely see a half of an inch or less
through the night. Snow showers linger into the day Monday while
gradually diminishing. Low stratus may persist well into the evening
as northwesterly flow remains in place.

Aside from snow, breezy northwesterly winds are expected to continue
through tonight into the day Monday. Winds likely remain above 10kt
for the next 24 hours, with frequent gusts between 20-30kt. Gusts
primarily occur during the afternoon as deeper boundary layer mixing
allows greater periodic downward momentum transfer. Temperatures
remain below freezing (highs in the 20s, lows in the teens) through
the forecast period, with wind chills into the single digits at
times.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday Night into Tuesday...

As boundary layer flow backs with approaching surface high pressure
ridge axis, lake effect clouds will dissipate across eastern zones.
Mostly clear skies will lead to low temperatures into the upper
teens across most areas with winds around 5-10 kts, this will to
wind chills around 10F.

A shortwave will move out of the Northern Plains into the Great
Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated area of low pressure will
deepening over the upper MS valley. As high pressure ridge axis
shifts quickly away, the surface pressure gradient will intensify
across central Indiana leading to breezy conditions (gusts over 25
mph) out of the SW. Although any precip chances will remain well
north of central Indiana, increasing mid-high clouds will lead to
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies by afternoon. This will have an effect
on limiting stronger wind gusts as well as warmer temperatures.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

Passage of the shortwave to the north of central Indiana will
help a weak cold front move through the area Tuesday night.
Operational GFS is indicating light QPF, but appears to be the
sole outlier, so will leave PoPs as is less than 10 percent. Near
normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with lighter winds and
mostly clear skies.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night...

A stronger shortwave will move out of the plains into the Ohio
Valley through the period. Medium range guidance remains in good
agreement that an associated surface low will track from near
central Indiana on Thursday. There is some indication that Ptype
will be an issue in the northern zones with either a rain to snow
transition or event a potential narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet.
Given uncertainties in the track of the surface low and WAA this far
out will just leave a rain/snow mix in the north and rain in the
south. Precip should quickly end early Thursday night.

Friday into Sunday...

A quick rebound in temps is expected Friday as upper ridging
builds eastward out of the plains in the wake of Thursday`s
shortwave trough. Highs are expected to warm to above normal into
the 50s. A lot of uncertainty in the forecast lingers for next
weekend. Model differences are huge when comparing the GFS and
EC/GEM. GFS has a much stronger upper ridge building over northern
Mexico with around 100-150m height differences from EC/GEM by
Sunday. Both EC/GEM show a strong cold front moving through late
Saturday into Sunday with 20F differences in highs as compared to
the GFS for Sunday. NBM has more weight with colder EC/GEM solution
and will side with that solution given the likely faster nature
of these cold airmass.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 644 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Impacts:

- Borderline MVFR ceilings possible near IND/LAF at times

- Scattered light snow showers becoming more localized later tonight

- NW winds between 10-20 kt sustained through the period, gusts
  between 18-25 kt possible at times

Discussion:

Persistent cyclonic flow combined with an upper-level disturbance
should continue to promote light snow showers or flurries into
tonight, primarily northeast of the TAF sites. There is a low
chance for snow showers to move over the sites which could lead to
brief visibility reductions at times. Flurries or isolated light
snow showers may linger into Monday morning, but confidence is
too low for a TAF mention at this time.

Ceilings have improved to MVFR at all sites. MVFR ceilings could
return tonight into Monday though, primarily near IND/LAF.
Northwesterly winds are expected to remain above 10 kt through much
the TAF period. Gusts between 18 to 25 kt are possible at times.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Melo